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☆ With Super Tuesday over, China and Xi may be praying for Trump to beat Biden
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-06 | by ( Matthew Loh | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

With Super Tuesday setting the US up for a Biden-Trump rematch, it looks like China has no good choices. But a rising perspective among experts on China posits that Beijing has good reason to hope Trump retakes the White House. Both President Joe Biden and Trump are expected to continue their aggression toward China, with Biden locking away US tech exports and Trump more recently threatening a 60% tariff on Chinese goods. Whichever way Beijing is betting, it's hard to say which man its preferred pick would be. AdvertisementWith close-to-clean sweeps across the board on Super Tuesday, both Biden and Trump are now all but confirmed to be their respective parties' nominees.

Persons: Trump, —, Xi Jinping, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Biden, Chengxin, Pan, MAGA, skittish, Stanley Rosen, Agathe Demarais, Demarais, shelve, China that's, it's, Ian Ja Chong, they're Organizations: Biden, Trump, Service, China, Associated Press, University of Macau, University of Southern California's China Institute, geoeconomics, European Council, Foreign Relations, Foreign Policy, National University of Singapore, White Locations: China, Beijing, Shanghai, Ukraine, Russia, New York

“President Biden this coming week will be doing a lot more than just meeting with President Xi,” White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters in Washington on Monday. White House officials say they are cognizant that fellow APEC nations want to see better dialogue between the U.S. and China because it reduces the risk of regional conflict. Biden on Monday welcomed Indonesian President Joko Widodo, a fellow APEC leader, to the White House for talks before both travel to San Francisco. Israel's retaliatory operations in Gaza have killed more than 11,000, sparking outrage from a slew of world leaders. The stopgap measure excludes the roughly $106 billion funding requested by Biden for Israel, Ukraine and the U.S. border with Mexico.

Persons: Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, Xi, what's, Biden, Russia's, “, Jake Sullivan, Donald Trump, Obama, ”, Neils Graham, Joshua Kurlantzick, TPP, Trump, Joko Widodo, “ We’re, Matt Murray, Fumio Kishida, Yoon Suk Yeol, Ferdinand Marcos, Jr, Mike Johnson, Sullivan, ” Sullivan, ___ Long, Josh Boak, Chris Megerian, Darlene Superville, Zeke Miller Organizations: FRANCISCO, Economic Cooperation, U.S, Republican, House, White, APEC, Economic Forum, Pacific Partnership, Atlantic Council GeoEconomics, Southeast, Council, Foreign Relations, Biden, Administration, Indonesian, The, Office, Georgetown University, Hamas, Associated Press Locations: Asia, Pacific, United States, San Francisco, China, Israel, Washington, Beijing, U.S, Southeast Asia, Japan, South Korea, Gaza, Indonesian, Ukraine, Japanese, South, Philippine, Philippines, South China, Mexico

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva did not mention the new conflict at opening events. The inability to respond extended to chair's statements issued by the Group of 20 major economies and the IMF and World Bank steering committees, which failed to mention the conflict. "You know, without peace, it's hard for people to get stability, growth, look after their children, get jobs," he said. But conflicts remain the biggest challenge to the global economy, said Josh Lipsky, a former IMF official who directs the Atlantic Council's GeoEconomics Center. "Geopolitical shocks are economic shocks now and economic shocks are geopolitical shocks - and they're trying to detach the two."

Persons: Kristalina Georgieva, that's, Rachel Nadelman, Joe Biden, China's Xi, Ajay Banga, Josh Lipsky, Andrea Shalal, David Lawder, Giles Elgood Organizations: Global, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, IMF, West Bank, Reuters, Research Center, Group, GeoEconomics, Thomson Locations: MARRAKECH, Morocco, Israel, Gaza, Lebanon, Ukraine, United States, China, Bali, Africa

The Group of 20 major economies did reach consensus on an official communique but omitted any mention of the Israel-Hamas war. Senior World Bank Group officials were more pointed in a statement to staff, saying they were "shocked and appalled by the unprecedented escalation of violence in Israel and Gaza." "We condemn terrorism in all forms, including the abhorrent targeting of innocent civilians and kidnapping," the leaders of the World Bank, the International Finance Corp and the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency, said in an internal statement seen by Reuters. "Geopolitical shocks are economic shocks now and economic shocks are geopolitical shocks - and they're trying to detach the two." Reporting by Andrea Shalal and David Lawder; Editing by Giles Elgood and Stephen CoatesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Kristalina Georgieva, that's, Rachel Nadelman, Joe Biden, China's Xi, Ajay Banga, Josh Lipsky, Andrea Shalal, David Lawder, Giles Elgood, Stephen Coates Organizations: Global, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, IMF, West Bank, Reuters, Research Center, U.S, Treasury, Bank Group, International Finance Corp, Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency, GeoEconomics, Thomson Locations: MARRAKECH, Morocco, Israel, Gaza, Lebanon, Ukraine, United States, China, Africa

☆ China president Xi's absence from this year's G20 summit is a big deal, says Josh Lipsky
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina president Xi's absence from this year's G20 summit is a big deal, says Josh LipskyJosh Lipsky, Senior Director of the Geoeconomics Center at the Atlantic Council, discusses his expectations for this year's G20 Summit.

Persons: Xi's, Josh Lipsky Josh Lipsky Organizations: Email China, Geoeconomics, Atlantic Council

WASHINGTON (AP) — Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is facing growing skepticism from some leading rich and developing nations as the residual impact of sanctions against Russia is deepening divisions among the Group of 20 countries. Russia and China, meanwhile, have declared a “no limits” partnership of their own. And the economic bloc of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — known as BRICS — is trying to increase its use of local currencies instead of the U.S. dollar. Russia is hoping it can use its power over Ukraine’s Black Sea exports as a bargaining chip to reduce Western sanctions. That may be difficult as G20 nations increasingly gravitate into blocs and with some leaders, including Chinese President Xi Jinping, opting to skip the summit.

Persons: Janet Yellen, —, Joe Biden, Yellen, Vladimir Putin, Putin, Rachel Ziemba, ”, Xi Jinping, Josh Lipsky, Lipsky, Xi, Mark Sobel, ” Sobel, Ziemba Organizations: WASHINGTON, —, U.S ., West, Center, New, New American Security, Treasury Department, International Fund for Agricultural Development, GeoEconomics, Fund, Center for Strategic, International Studies, U.S, New Development Bank, Monetary Fund, World Bank, ”, European Union Locations: Russia, India, U.S, Moscow, Ukraine, United States, China, Brazil, South Africa, New Delhi, New American, Argentina, Australia, Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Turkey

Moscow took sharp action on Friday to curb inflation, fearing the effects of ever higher spending on the war in Ukraine and of a weakening Russian ruble. Russia’s central bank took the unexpected step of raising its benchmark interest rate by a full percentage point, to 8.5 percent from 7.5 percent. It was the first large hike in more than a year, and the bank warned that further increases were likely. “It is a surprise and on its face reflects more concern at the central bank about inflation and how the economy is doing that we had appreciated,” said Robert Kahn, the head of the Geoeconomics Team at the Eurasia Group, a New York-based risk analysis firm. “It suggests that the war is proving increasingly disruptive to economic activity and pushing up inflationary pressures.”

Persons: Moscow, ”, Robert Kahn Organizations: Eurasia Group Locations: Ukraine, Russia’s, New York

☆ Stock market news: The Fed meets next week. What can investors expect?
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-11 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

The S&P 500 Index last week entered a bull market, meaning that it notched a 20% rally from its low in October. Moreover, investors appeared calmer than they have in years, after the United States suspended the debt ceiling in time to avoid a default, allowing investors to breathe a sigh of relief. The May Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index reports, two key inflation prints, are also due the days that the Fed meets. But the United States could still suffer a downgrade to its credit rating, even though it avoided losing its ability to make payments on time. Tuesday: Consumer Price Index report for May and NFIB small business optimism index.

Persons: CNN — Stocks, Price, ”, JJ Kinahan, there’s, Karim El Nokali, Jerome Powell, ” El Nokali, —, Joe Biden, Benjamin Jeffery, Patrick Klein, ” Josh Lipsky, it’s, Olivier d’Assier, “ It’s, George Mateyo Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Nasdaq, United, Fed, IG North America, Fitch, AAA, BMO Capital Markets, Franklin, GeoEconomics, International Monetary Fund, Treasury Department, US Treasury, Key Private Bank, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Survey, Consumer, Federal Reserve, Federal, University of Michigan Locations: United States, US

☆ Foreign investors have been dumping vast amounts of Chinese assets, and putting money there will only get riskier
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Foreign investors have been selling Chinese securities for the last two years, the Atlantic Council said. "Putting money in China is going to become riskier, and de-risking is only going to become more commonplace." Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. Separate reports have also shown that foreign investors are selling Chinese stocks at a faster pace. Mark acknowledged Chinese efforts to bring back some overseas investment, but foreign capital flows are set to keep declining, especially with new US restrictions on the horizon.

Persons: Xi, —, Jeremy Mark, Mark, bode, Biden Organizations: Atlantic Council, Service, Geoeconomics, IMF Locations: China, New York, Hong Kong, India

☆ A debt-ceiling deal may be close but the crisis likely isn't solved for good. Here's what would happen if the US actually defaulted on its debt.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-27 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

So the Treasury market remains intact in this scenario? JL: The broader US economy will suffer, the stock market will suffer, there will be higher unemployment. So just because the Treasury market ends up doing fine does not mean good news for the US economy. If you think the stock market isn't signaling there's a recession looming, David Rosenberg says otherwise. The AI hype gripping the stock market will resemble a mini dot-com bubble, according to UBS's Art Cashin.

☆ Debt ceiling crisis: How a US default would ricochet around the world
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

But if it does, it could make the 2008 global financial crisis feel like a walk in the park. The consequences are frightful.”The belief that America’s government will pay its creditors on time underpins the smooth functioning of the global financial system. During the 2011 standoff over raising the US debt ceiling, the S&P 500 index of leading US shares plunged more than 15%. “It’s unclear in a Treasury default crisis whether the Fed could do enough even with the types of efforts it deployed in March 2020,” Obstfeld said. “A default would be a message to investors all around the world of eroding confidence in America,” he added.

☆ Why China and Japan are praying the US won’t default
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-25 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

China and Japan are the largest foreign investors in American government debt. China was the largest foreign creditor to the United States for more than a decade. The falling value of Treasuries would lead to a drop in Japan and China’s foreign reserves. “If the United States defaults on its debt, it will not only discredit the United States, but also bring real financial losses to China,” it said. Analysts say Beijing has shown little willingness to fully integrate with global financial markets.

☆ Russia and China hit back at a G7 that saw them as a threat
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-21 | by ( Simone Mccarthy | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

CNN —Moscow and Beijing lashed out against the Group of Seven (G7) summit in Hiroshima, where leaders of major democracies pledged new measures targeting Russia and spoke in one voice on their growing concerns over China. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Saturday slammed the G7 for indulging in their “own greatness” with an agenda that aimed to “deter” Russia and China. G7 member countries are Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States. Concern about such incidents was reflected in the G7 statement on ensuring economic security and countering economic coercion, which did not explicitly mention China. “The bottom line is that the G7 has shown it will increasingly focus on China and will try to maintain a coordinated policy approach.

☆ Exclusive: G7 summit statement to target China's 'economic coercion'
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-13 | by ( Trevor Hunnicutt | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The main G7 statement is set to include "a section specific to China" with a list of concerns that include "economic coercion and other behavior that we have seen specifically from the [People's Republic of China]," the official said on Friday. A separate "economic security statement will speak more to tools" used to counter coercive efforts from any countries responsible, including planning and coordination, the person said. The joint statement issued by all the G7 leaders every year is intended to signal that the powerful countries are aligned on a range of political and economic issues. CHINA TESTS G7 ALLIANCEThe G7 meeting will be a test of how much the members, all rich democracies, can agree on a common approach to China, the world's second largest economy. Traveling for the G7 finance meeting in Japan, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Thursday that China had clearly used economic coercion with Australia and Lithuania.

☆ Forget the pension protests. France’s economy has momentum
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-30 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

France’s economy grew 0.2% in the first quarter of this year, its national statistics agency said Friday, after stagnating in the previous quarter. Yet the long-running protests are unlikely to leave a lasting dent in France’s economy, according to Charlotte de Montpellier, a senior economist at Dutch bank ING. But its $2.8 trillion economy has held up comparatively well. Office buildings illuminated in the La Defense business district of Paris, France, on Monday, Feb. 6, 2023. ‘Momentum’ building for banksBritain’s exit from the European Union has also been a boon for France’s financial sector.

He now faces renewed criticism over his agenda at the Fed, where he oversaw efforts to reduce regulations on regional banks. U.S. regional banks are expected to pay higher rates to depositors to keep them from switching to larger lenders, leaving them with higher funding costs. In 2008, regulators had to contend with billions of dollars in toxic mortgages and complex derivatives sitting on bank books. Currently, regional banks below $250 billion in assets have simpler capital, liquidity and stress testing requirements. "SVB is not a very complicated bank," said Dan Awrey, a Cornell Law professor and bank regulation expert.

And it's little surprise the International Monetary Fund forecast Britain would be the only economy of the G7 to contract this year. But certainly the potential for improved trade relations with the UK's biggest trading partner is clear. Unicredit this month cited estimates that the UK economy would underperform by 5-7% over 10 years if it remains outside the EU single market and customs union. It may even have been a key spur to this week's breakthrough given the frayed geopolitical backdrop. President Joe Biden has long insisted there would be no progress on a U.S. deal with Britain until the Northern Irish conundrum was resolved.

☆ Analysis: Shock of war hits a world economy at the crossroads
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( Mark John | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

But its deeper impact will be felt in how the conflict plays into shifts that were already reshaping the global economy before Russia's tanks rolled in. Economic sanctions on Moscow came as hurdles to world trade were mounting after an era of rapid globalisation. Reuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsNO ENDGAME IN SIGHTSome might conclude that means the world economy has taken the conflict in its stride. That would take the outlook for both the global economy and wider peace into uncharted territory. For the economy, the risk is that energy prices - and hence inflation - will be squeezed higher if shortfalls are not met.

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